Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting. 

Even teams in the middle of the table still have hope of finishing in the play-offs. It’s a crazy season in League One where nothing really separates the average from the poor. These are my betting tips for League One round 28.

0-0 Last Time Around

Derby County – Bolton Wanderers

I normally try to have some variety of which games I preview, making sure that I represent both the bottom- and top end of the league table. This is undoubtedly a game at the top of the table between two very good teams who are in splendid form. I watched the reverse match between Derby and Bolton a few weeks ago, and thought it was a “great advert” for League One, although it finished 0-0 in the end. It was a game where both teams went for it (though cautiously) and defended terrifically.

Derby have been involved in a few games where we’ve seen very few chances lately, especially against the best teams in the division. Paul Warne’s teams are usually interested in making sure that they defend well before going all out attack to score the necessary one or two goals to win the match. There’s every chance that this one can finish with few goals – again, bearing in mind that both teams are in a good position in the league table, and that the single point could be valuable.

Relegation Scrap

Lincoln City – Burton Albion (postponed)

These are two very different teams in one way, and quite similar teams in another. Lincoln are definitely thinking safety first, whereas Burton are more “all guns blazing” playing with a high line and being über direct. Their similarity lies in directness when winning the ball: both sides are happy to go long and play the ball into the channels where it’s possible. Burton absolutely thumped Lincoln right before the new year, which has been a very rare occurrence for Mark Kennedy’s men (the Lincoln manager).

Sometimes in football you just expect a reaction; to some degree a bit of revenge, a bit of sweet redemption. The Imps (Lincoln) are currently a team that I can count on in that regard. I think they’ll give Burton some of their own medicine and respond massively here. There are no corner odds available for this game when I’m writing this blogpost, but I think there’s a good chance that I might pick something in that category.

A Curse Over Ipswich Town

Oxford United – Ipswich Town

For potentially new readers, I’m an Ipswich Town fan and that should be clear right from the get-go here. I’ve felt as if there’s hanging a curse over Town this season. They are the best team in the league on so many statistics, and have been the better team in absolutely every single game that they’ve turned up to this season. So why are they sitting third in the league, losing ground on Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday?

In my view, this is partly down to lack of luck, and also down to lack of quality. Yes, they have accumulated a high xG number, but to be an effective team you need players who capitalise on their chances. Town haven’t done so, but have now signed players who are capable of producing very good numbers at this level. Next up for Ipswich are Oxford United, a team who are very unpredictable and difficult to anticipate. They were outstanding against Arsenal on Monday last week, but then went to Fleetwood on Saturday and were lucky to get a win in the end. I think this is the type of game that suits Ipswich very well, coming head to head against a team who want to attack and leave spaces to exploit. 1.90 is short away from home in League One, but a price I think I want to take.

Overrated

Morecambe – Port Vale (postponed)

Port Vale were toothless and lacked creativity against Peterborough on Monday, a game where it was clear that they missed James Wilson and Ellis Harrison up top. Morecambe have rediscovered their mojo and are not a team to take lightly. Derek Adams’ boys have some quality and a lot of determination, which I think is extremely valuable for a team in the relegation mix. In my eyes, Port Vale shouldn’t be considered big favourites away from home to a tricky team who seldom lose home games. There’s definitely value on The Shrimps (Morecambe), here.

Conclusion

I think there are many enticing games in League One this season, as always, you might say. Here are my concrete betting tips for League One round 28:

• Oxford-Ipswich. Ipswich to win @ 1.90.
• Morecambe-Port Vale. 1X & under 4.5 goals @ 1.85. (postponed)
• Derby-Bolton. Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74.