Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

I always have to check which round I’m about to preview. Is it round 34 or 35? This weekend there’s no doubt: of course I’m about to take a big look ahead to the final day of the season. Round 46! Who will finish in 6th spot, who will win the damn thing and who will get relegated? Let’s find out…

I usually preview one game at a time, but I have to get a complete overview of this craziness. Here are my betting tips for League One round 46.

The Winner (Can) Take it All
Fleetwood Town – Ipswich Town & Port Vale – Plymouth Argyle

If Ipswich get a better result than Plymouth Argyle, they win the League One title. As long as this doesn’t happen, obviously, the title is Argyle’s.

By looking at the odds, it’s quite easy to conclude that Ipswich have the easiest game on paper, by which I genuinely disagree. Town have been so lethal for the last couple of months, that they’re huge favourites for every game that they turn up for. However, Fleetwood Town are no mugs and have been the 9th best team in the division for the last 15 games, having only conceded a goal per game on average in this period. Ipswich, believe it or not, have only conceded twice in their last 15 matches. 1.41 is the price for them to beat Fleetwood, which I think is a bit too short. I think they’ll attack this one without any thought of consequence, so an entertaining game is my prediction. If Ipswich win 1-0, they will finish the season with 100 points & 100 goals.

Plymouth’s biggest achievement this season – in my view – is that they are above Ipswich. This is a magnificent feat for a team with a much lower budget and who have lost some key players throughout the season. Morgan Whittaker was recalled by Swansea in January and their best player (goalie Michael Keeper) has been injured since January. 

Going to Port Vale is a great way to end the season, but Vale have proved a bit tricky to beat at home. My opinion of the final day in terms of winning the title is that Ipswich will win their game and that Argyle won’t. Combine these outcomes and get 2.88 with Unibet.

The Chase For 6th
Barnsley – Peterborough United & Sheffield Wednesday – Derby

The situation is not that complex: Peterborough are two points behind Derby, so will have to win away at Barnsley to stand any chance of finishing in 6th spot, which will see them take part in the play-offs later in May. But if Derby win, there’s nothing “Posh” can do. If Derby draw and Posh win by only two goals, Derby will still get play-offs. A draw will not be enough for County if Peterborough win by three goals or more.

Derby are away at Sheffield Wednesday, a really tricky game in isolation, but after all, against a team who have nothing to play for except to prepare for the play-offs. Barnsley are a very good side and one that I clearly expect to give Peterborough a good game, so the task is mightily difficult for Darren Ferguson’s men. I think Derby will approach the game at Hillsborough with more carefulness than what might have been the case in the first game of the season, as they know that a draw should be enough for them. Going out to beat Wednesday might leave them vulnerable, so I don’t see a Paul Warne team acting crazy here. Peterborough will go to Oakwell to win by as much as possible, so picking Peterborough corners or a high scoring game can be a good idea. 

I’m picking Sheff Wed and Derby to finish under 2.5 goals at 1.88 with Unibet. The other game might go in all directions, so I’m not touching that one.

Who Will Go Down?
Burton Albion – MK Dons, Cambridge United – Forest Green Rovers & Exeter City – Morecambe.

Yes, there is all to play for in all three of these games on Sunday. Someone might look at Oxford and Accrington and think that they are still “in” it, but that’s not really the case at all. Only perverse mathematics will send Oxford down, or stop Accy from playing in League Two next season. The games that matter are the three that I’ve mentioned and are about to look ahead to.

This can happen: MK Dons and Morecambe are both at 44 points, while Cambridge squandered a great opportunity to climb out of the relegation spots in midweek, leaving them at 43 points. If MK win, they stay up (unless Morecambe win by eight goals or more than them). If MK draw, they are down if either Cambridge and Morecambe win. 

Let’s start with MK. I watched Burton against Cambridge on Wednesday night and thought that Burton showed glimpses of quality, just enough to get the win in the end. It’s not an easy game to have on the final day, and MK players, staff and fans will know that losing a 4-1 lead on the weekend against Barnsley can prove to be a fatal collapse. The betting market thinks that Milton Keynes should beat Burton, strangely enough considering how poor they’ve been this season. I guess motivation is the key word here. It’s a difficult game to take a bet in, bearing in mind that the situation in the other games might affect MK’s approach. But my expectation is that they’ll look to win the game – taking care of their own destiny. I’m staying away from the game at this moment, but over 10.5 corners at 2.12 might be a decent pick.

Cambridge will need MK and Morecambe not to win, and have to do the job themselves by beating Forest Green. This is not unlikely, as Forest Green are the worst team in League One, and Morecambe and MK have difficult games. 1.50 is a short price for Cambridge to win here, but I think that they will do so against a very weak Forest Green side.

Morecambe only have to make sure that they win themselves, and hope that Milton Keynes don’t beat Burton. If that happens, they stay up. A draw will be enough for Morecambe if Cambridge don’t win, and MK lose. They’ve somehow ended up in a situation where it’s possible for them to do so, which is an unbelievable achievement for a team with such a low budget.

What do I think?

If you’re pushing me for a prediction of the final day relegation fight, my gut feeling is that Cambridge will have enough to clinch the holy grail of 20th spot. I’ve not been impressed by MK this year, Morecambe will find it hard against a remorseful Exeter team who lost by six at Ipswich last weekend, and Cambridge’s performances have been alright since the turn of the year. They were unlucky in midweek and should have got at least a point. Combining these three outcomes (1X, 1X and Cambridge win) gives us a price of 3.48. Cambridge have the advantage that they’re the only team in the relegation fight that has a home game, but they did play in midweek, leaving them with extra fatigue in their legs ahead of the 46th League One round.

Conclusion

I’m almost a bit sad to say that this is my last regular blogpost for League One this season, although I will preview the play-offs games that are coming up. Here are my betting tips for League One round 46:

• Sheffield Wednesday-Derby. Under 2.5 goals @ 1.88.
• Exeter-Morecambe. Over 10.5 corners @ 2.04.
• Ipswich win & 1x in Port Vale-Plymouth @ 2.88.