Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

Two games in the Premier League this midweek. One of them is a very unique and peculiar derby, while the other one is a “standard” encounter in the top flight of English football. These are my midweek betting tips for Premier League week 11.

The A23 Derby
Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace

The A23 derby is a very peculiar rivalry in English football. The reason behind the animosity between the sides is rooted in an incident in the 70s, where former team-mate managers Terry Venables and Alan Mullery were the managers of the respective teams. Neither team have any other main rivals, so the strange geographic barrier between them has made this the most unique rivalry in the UK. It’s also difficult to understand when you read about it, because there’s not this one single incident that fuelled it.

Over to the football. Brighton are flying high in the Premier League at the moment, and picked up a decent away point at Leeds United on Saturday to see them continue their unbeaten run. I think most Brighton fans will be pinching themselves, bearing in mind that their club was on the brink of liquidation only a short 15 years ago. They’ve become an established Premier League side who are now outsiders for a spot in Europe. Very impressive, indeed, and they should fancy their chances when Crystal Palace travel down the A23 to take them on. Except Tariq Lamptey and Adam Lallana, Brighton have a fully fit squad to choose from.

I think Palace are in a strange position, where they’ve not really been a team near the bottom for the entirety of the season, but might “sleepwalk” their way to relegation unless something drastic happens. They haven’t won a game since New Year’s Eve, where I actually backed them to beat Bournemouth – which they did. That’s their only win since the World Championships in Qatar, which seems like a lifetime ago.

I’ll do something interesting here, and guess the odds before I see them. I think Brighton should be priced at approximately 1.70 to beat Palace at The AMEX, and will be extremely surprised to see them above 2.00. Now that I take a look, I see that the true price is 1.47, which seems incredibly short, even though the underlying numbers are strong in Brighton’s favour. Bearing in mind what I’ve just said, Palace +1.5 (asian) @ 1.68 must be a decent pick.

Saints Picking Up Some Form
Southampton – Brentford

Casemiro’s red card on the weekend was enough to spark a reaction in Southampton, who created numerous decent chances to score a goal at Old Trafford. They’ve now beaten Leicester and gone toe to toe with Manchester United in consecutive games, which is something to build from in their case. The price for them to keep their good form going and beat Brentford is 3.10, which is interesting. At the same time, Brentford’s been so good this year that I can actually make a good case for backing them at 2.45 to beat Southampton here. Their best form has come at The Brentford Community Stadium, where they’ve only lost a single game of football in 13 fixtures. Their away form has only seen them win twice in 12 attempts, which is also quite extraordinary – though in the negative sense. 

2.04 is the price for this game to go over 2.5 goals, while you will net a profit of 7.8 euros if your stake is 10 euro. I wouldn’t back the over here, but isn’t exactly confident in the under either. The corner line is 9.5, which is about right, although I’d rather back a game of few corners than plenty. Both saw plenty in their respective games at the weekend, so that puts me off for this one. I’m not taking any bets here, to say it as it is.

Conclusion

These are my midweek betting tips for Premier League week 11:

• Brighton-Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace +1.5 @ 1.68.