Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

The relegation fight is heating up in the Premier League. I will go into that in more detail in a later blogpost, but for now I’m eyeing a few really interesting fixtures. These are my Premier League betting tips for round 35.

Now What, Frank?
Bournemouth – Chelsea

I watched Arsenal demolish Chelsea in midweek, in a game that I think any team with more quality would have punished Arsenal more severely than Chelsea did. Lampard’s team looked uninterested and very incoherent defensively, and the attacking relationships didn’t seem present at all. Very worrying for the Blues, who haven’t had a lift at all after Frank Lampard returned to “his” club. They are now, at least in theory, in a relegation battle, and are still the team in the PL who have scored the fewest goals over the last 20 games or so. Awful.

I think the opposite should be said for Bournemouth, who are looking like a well functioning unit playing for each other, while also proving to have quality in attacking areas. I’m interested to see that the odds for Chelsea to win has gone from 1.80 to 2.10 after the Arsenal game, which of course is understandable. Just because of Chelsea’s quality (on paper), I’m tempted by that price. But looking at the teams in isolation without having the big or small club connotations attached to them, there’s no reason why Chelsea should be favourites here – in isolation. It’s a difficult one, and I think that a game with good energy and a lot of situations in the attacking 3rd of the pitch sounds plausible. 1.86 for the game to have over 24.5 shots is not a bad price; the same is true for over 2.5 goals at 2.00. Anything less than a convincing performance from Lampard and Chelsea would be deemed a failure on the south coast.

Injuries In Key Areas
Newcastle United – Arsenal

Besides the Etihad, I think St. James Park must be the most difficult place to go in English football right now (not including Ipswich Town’s famous Portman Road, obviously…). After Gabriel limped off against Chelsea – and with Saliba’s injury in mind – Arsenal fans started to realise that they might have something very interesting to look ahead to: Kiwior and Holding as a CB pairing. That’s probably why Newcastle are favourites against Arsenal, surely? 2.50 for them to beat The Gunners is a bit high, but also a bit low, depending on what mood you catch me in. I think Newcastle have been absolutely outstanding, and have indeed wiped the floor with a few of the big dogs, but the same can be said about Arsenal’s top level throughout the campaign.

The bookies expect goals here, which I agree with. Both teams are in need of three points, and with Arsenal’s injury concerns in key areas, I’m struggling to see a similar game to what we got at the Emirates in January when these two met. 1.65 for over 2.5 goals is not a great price, but Arsenal’s last 7 games have actually ended with over 3.5. I have no idea where I’m leaning here, but if you put a gun towards my head and force an answer out of me, I would say that I’m more keen on Newcastle at 2.50 than Arsenal at 2.65.

Sports Psychology Exemplified
Nottingham Forest – Southampton

I’ve written at length about these types of games before. Last weekend, I absolutely hit the nail on the head by calling plenty of shots in Bournemouth-Leeds, and I proved to be right. In sports betting, the closing price gives us the best possible indicator about the bet’s true probability: we picked over 24.5 shots at 1.94, and the price ahead of kick-off was 1.40. I think we can get a similar thing here.

Both Forest and Southampton are clearly desperate to get a win. Southampton are probably already down, but if they beat Forest (which they obviously can do), they have the opportunity to only be three points behind a safe spot. Nothing is impossible in football, and by the fact that they play Fulham at home only five days later, I think the clear narrative within Southampton is that this is it. They have to beat Forest, and I think they’ll do everything they can to do so. 

Forest are looking better and are in a better position, so a home game against the bottom team is a must-win, without any doubt. This is a non-negotiable, simple as. I expect desperation from both teams and a chaotic game, not unlike the one we saw between Leicester and Everton on Monday. Over 23.5 shots at 2.08 is a terrific price, and one that I don’t think will stand for long. If it drops, which I unfortunately think it might do before you read this, the Forest shots line is only 11.5, which I think has some value up to 14.5. If not, corners are always a good bet in games with plenty at stake (where both need to win).

Conclusion

My Premier League betting tips for round 35 are:

• Nottingham Forest-Southampton. Over 23.5 shots @ 2.08.
• Nottingham Forest-Southampton. Over 9.5 corners @ 2.05.
• Bournemouth-Chelsea. Over 24.5 shots @ 1.86.
• Bournemouth-Chelsea. Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00.