Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

Manchester City have already secured their Premier League title, and Newcastle and their United counterparts from Manchester have made sure that they play Champions League football next season. However, there’s still a lot to play for in the darker regions of the Premier League table. I’m going down the stairs for a visit to the cellar, to see who goes down to the Championship. These are my Premier League betting tips for round 38.

Europe For Villa?
Aston Villa – Brighton & Hove Albion

Aston Villa – or, particularly Unai Emery – have done extraordinarily well to be in with a shout of European football in the last Premier League round. If they win this game, they will finish ahead of Spurs and have the chance of qualifying for the Europa Conference League.

In other words, Villa’s motivation should be a bit higher than Brighton’s, who are one game away from being finished with this football season. I think it’s fair to say that they have been outstanding, but it’s difficult to say exactly how up they are for this match. Villa are favourites, which is probably right, but I do think that there’s some value on Brighton at the moment. Value is all about probability, and I genuinely believe that there’s a much greater probability that Villa will not win, than 50%, which the odds of 2.06 suggests that it might not be. I would price Emery’s boys around 2.30-2.40, perhaps. In other words, Brighton or draw at 1.83 is a bet that I’m taking, but not with a great deal of courage: don’t underestimate motivation, but in this instance I feel that Unibet and the market overestimates it.

Already Given Up?
Leeds United – Tottenham Hotspur

While Villa are looking great and on course for a place in the Conference League qualifiers – as long as their result isn’t worse than Spurs’ – the Whites from London are in terrible nick and are odds against to finish in the top 7. Some might say that a season without European football will be a welcomed break for them, but it’s a cash cow that every PL club is dependent on. I do think that Villa will be very motivated for their Brighton game, and you might argue that Spurs will be equally up for their test when they go to Yorkshire to face a desperate Leeds United team. However, I’m not so sure that they are.

I watched Tottenham’s game against Brentford last weekend, and thought they put on a great performance in the 1st half, while they looked very incoherent in the 2nd. This might be Harry Kane’s last game for Spurs, something that we obviously won’t know for sure at this stage. This exact fixture might be perfect for them, I think, as Leeds United don’t have an option but to attack and get the job done themselves.

It should invite chaos and turmoil and produce lots of chances for Kane and co. If Leeds win and Leicester don’t and Everton lose, Leeds United are a Premier League team next season as well. Just for fun, I’ve tried combining these three outcomes to see how realistic this is according to the bookies, and the answer is 2.75% (the odds are 36.36 exactly when I’m writing this). That’s not a great probability, but if they do win, the chance of a Bournemouth win and Leicester slipping up in their game, is 12.76%. The issue is that I don’t think Leeds will win, unfortunately for them. I do think that we have some great betting value in this game, though.

Three Points Is Expected At Goodison
Everton – AFC Bournemouth

Everton are priced at 1.50 to beat Bournemouth as I am writing my Premier League betting tips for round 38, which is higher than it was earlier in the week. It’s been as low as 1.40 at some stage. That’s shockingly low for a team that has been shockingly uninspiring – though quite solid and slightly better under Dyche. The pressure that the Everton players will be under is nothing short of grand, and probably difficult to get a grasp of for us standing on the outside and who have never played in front of 40-50 thousand screaming people before.

The Cherries have had a really successful season. Gary O’Neil has done an astonishing job and is my pick for manager of the season – just behind Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola. It’s not a given that Everton will stamp all over them here, I don’t think, especially when you consider some of the attacking threats that this Bournemouth team have with Anthony, Brooks and Tavernier, to name a few. They can go to this game without any pressure and have all the freedom to attack in the world to lots of spaces that Everton will leave behind.

If we consider that Everton are safe as long as: Leicester or Leeds don’t win; they pick up a point if only Leeds win; or regardless of outcome in all the other games as long as they get the three points themselves, this is Everton’s to lose, without doubt. I’m very curious to see how the atmosphere inside Goodison Park will be – probably nervous and anxious. It would be a shame to see such a great club be relegated, although I don’t think it’s very likely that it will happen. Moreover, from Everton’s perspective it would be stupid to sit back and wait for action in the other games, so I think Dyche will set his team up to go and win this game of football.

Do The Job & Hope For The Best
Leicester City – West Ham United

While Everton know that they are safe with a victory, Leicester City can only – just like Leeds – make sure that they get the job done and hope for the best. A win will be enough as long as Everton fail to take all three points, which is something that their fans can get behind and actually believe in. Why shouldn’t Everton slip up against a team that has had a better season than them? In Leicester’s case, all that they need to think about is themselves. My worry is that they’re looking like they are not good enough to beat West Ham at the moment. 

Again, though, my best tool for finding the true probability of something occuring, is the betting market. X2 at Goodison Park and Elland Road and a win for Leicester gives us a price of 7.81, which equals to 12.80%. Not very unlikely, but vastly better than Leeds’ chances. 

Leicester, however, have been dreadful at defending set pieces and counter attacks, and here they have to beat a West Ham team who are getting their mojo going ahead of a huge game in the Conference League final, and who are quite good at counter attacks and set pieces. Their motivation shouldn’t be very hampered with the final to come, bearing in mind that it’s still a week and a half away. There are places to play for, and when their team is anything but settled – except some positions – those who are given the nod here will be up for the challenge to impress David Moyes. A mention for West Ham’s Pablo Fornals, who I thought was brilliant for them against Leeds on Sunday.

I offer West Ham a better win probability than the odds of 3.70 indicates here, and it’s a bet that I want to take. A draw is no good at all for The Foxes, so we might just as well bet on an away win instead of the X2; if Leicester need a goal in the last 10 minutes, it’s not unlikely that West Ham get huge spaces to exploit and can score a goal to win the game deep in injury time.

Conclusion

My last Premier League blogpost for this season is now done and dusted. Thanks for following me this year. I will be back again next season. 

I’m betting on chaos, desperation and madness in the games that I’ve previewed here. 

These are my Premier League betting tips for round 38 – my final picks of the 2022/23 season:

• Everton-Bournemouth. Over 26.5 shots @ 2.14.
• Leeds-Tottenham. Over 10.5 corners @ 1.95 (I also like the Spurs odds of 2.35, and Harry Kane to score @ 1.98.
• Leicester-West Ham. West Ham to win @ 3.70.
• Leicester-West Ham. Over 26.5 shots @ 1.82.
• Aston Villa-Brighton. X2 @ 1.83.