Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet.
Just three more rounds remain of this year’s Eliteserien. I have reviewed the games that matter, and also had a say on the most important fixtures in the last round of OBOS-ligaen, which are also being played this weekend. Only two picks from me last week in Eliteserien: HamKam or draw & under 3.5 goals against Strømsgodset: win; and Lillestrøm draw no bet away to Haugesund: another winner. 1.68 units up and 2/2 bets were winners. Happy days! Two teams with nothing to play for. I hope to see Godset back to their usual self at Marienlyst, but I don’t have much to say about this game. I think both teams will be happy to end the season and start preparing for next year. This game has something riding on it. Vålerenga are still in with a slight chance of catching Lillestrøm, who sit third in the table, and being in contention for a place in Europe next year. Enga are already eliminated from NM, so IF they finish 4th, they still need either Molde, Lillestrøm or Bodø/Glimt to win the cup for them to be handed a chance to qualify for the Conference League. They’ve been poor for a few weeks now, ever since Rosenborg spanked them at Lerkendal and Stefan Strandberg got injured. It’s time to bounce back for Fagermo and his team, who host Sarpsborg 08, a team in great form. Vålerenga are traditionally strong at home, and are correct favourites at 1.87 to beat the team from Østfold. I’m tempted, but it’s a couple of points too low for my liking, I think. Maybe I will change my mind closer to kick-off. Well, this is a tasty fixture. Rosenborg have been the best home team in the division this year, and are within touching distance of Bodø/Glimt because of that. It will take something special for them to catch the yellows from Bodø, but beating them at home should be a good occasion to close the gap. It’s reportedly almost sold out at Lerkendal, and when we know damn well that Glimt had a tough game against FC Zürich on Thursday, it’s hard to imagine that they will find life easy when they enter the natural grass pitch in Trondheim. Glimt have found their flow again, though they’re almost always better at home than on their travels. Two teams who score lots of goals and also have a bad habit of conceding one or two, should make for a great game in Trondheim on Sunday. Glimt are actually favourites in this one, which I think you can make a decent argument against. I don’t think we should underestimate Rosenborg’s preparations (no game midweek) and their grass advantage. Though Lillestrøm have looked a shadow of their former selves from before the summer break, I saw something in their performances against Haugesund and Molde to indicate that they might be finding the track again. Åråsen is always a horrible place to go for a lot of teams, something that almost certainly is correlated with the fact that Lillestrøm teams through the years have been robust and usually incredibly effective from set pieces. Odd, with their possession orientated and ‘pretty on the ball style’, will not enjoy a type of game where the ball is dominantly in the air. That means that we might see a game between two teams who try to play the game completely different from each other, which means that – simplistically speaking – the team who gets their way will eventually be rewarded. Lillestrøm have more to play for, but Odd are in a good period and have no reason to stop their ongoing momentum. Only theory, and a perverse theory, so to speak, can stop Jerv from being relegated to OBOS-ligaen in a week or two. They still have a very slim chance of staying up, but are reliant on themselves to win almost everything remaining, while teams above them (KBK and Sandefjord) have to lose almost every game they turn up for. It’s not gonna happen, is it? No, probably not. Moreover, it can be a good thing to end the season on a high, even if they’re going down. Good momentum and positivity can be valuable for next season regardless of division. Beating Tromsø at Alfheim will never be easy (there’s a tendency for Norwegian teams to be good at home, I note), especially now that they are in a very good nick. I just have a feeling that Jerv’s final death stab will result in a really ugly defeat, so it’s not hard to see a kind of game where they go one behind in the early stages and end up losing by five or six. It’s time for a sunnmørsk derby on the West Coast when Kristiansund host Aalesund. Lars Arne Nilsen’s men survived the drop last weekend when they beat Sandefjord 1-0, a very scrappy and low quality game with a desperate away side hoping to get a point. Now Sandefjord will hope that Aalesund does the job again, because KBK are the closest team to catching Blåhvalene currently. I always fancy Kristiansund to be hard to beat at home (another good home team…), and especially so against an Aalesund team who don’t have a thing to play for, except pride, etc., etc. I’m picking a home win in this one. If HamKam hadn’t got a point against Strømsgodset on Saturday, I’m absolutely convinced that this would have been a very nervous game between two teams afraid to lose. Now I’m sitting with a feeling that HamKam can try to express themselves a bit more, even though they never seem to do so regardless of position on the table. Sandefjord have maybe more to gain from a win, but a defeat for Ødegaard’s men and a home win in Kristiansund will close the gap between SF and KBK to only two points. That might result in a panic station scenario for Sandefjord, who are in a horrendous run of form at the moment anyway. I just don’t see any of these two teams taking enough risks for it to be a high scoring contest. Low on goals is my pick. This is a dead rubber. Neither team has anything to play for, but I suspect that it means more for Viking than for Molde. Siddisene come to this game on the back of a good performance against Jerv, a game in which they created a good number of opportunities and were very unlucky not to win. It’s not great for them at the moment, so a revitalising showing against the best team in the league will mean the world for Lunde Aarsheim, Jensen and their players. Molde’s priority is Europe, obviously. This is the last round of OBOS-ligaen 2022. A lot of things are settled, but there is still something to play for in a few of the games. I’ve written a few words about three of them. This is a proper rivalry between two teams who really dislike each other. Bryne have actually impressed me quite a bit although I find their style a bit monotonous and old school. They keep getting good results and have different weapons to rely on for goals: Robert Undheim’s long throws are a unique asset for any team to have in its locker. The boys from Jæren have nothing to play for in terms of league position, but are highly motivated to get a win at home against Sandnes Ulf, their bitter rivals. Ulf, however, are incredibly up and down and impossible to rely on for stability. Bjarne Berntsen’s men can be very entertaining and a joy to watch, while conceding five the next game. The odds market think that this will be a tight encounter, and I agree. In my eyes, Bryne have a slight advantage by being at home and having the game played at their natural grass turf. I will probably look at corners in this game. Sandnes Ulf will secure a promotion qualification spot by beating Bryne. Before August came around, Ranheim looked set to compete amongst the three or four best teams in OBOS-ligaen, but have barely won a game since. This is a game between two sides who have plenty to play for: Start for the third spot and advantages on the road to securing a promotion, and Ranheim just to sneak in the top 6; to do so, they have to win and rely on Bryne for help, or draw the game and hope that Ulf lose heavily. I’m finding it difficult to see that Ranheim will go to Sørlandet and smash Start, a game in which the home team is very motivated and in great form. Schulze and Holtan up top are playing well and shouldn’t stop their current form against Ranheim, who concede goals for fun. It will be a good game between two teams who need the three points, and have managers in Tjelmeland and Pereira who always want to play football “the right way”. Stabæk are already up, and will have spent last weekend celebrating away just the way people from Bærum should. Lars Bohinen’s lads don’t have anything to play for here, other than pride and for a good end to a successful season. Mjøndalen, on the other hand, can secure a top 6 spot if everything goes their way: they have to win the game and cross their fingers that Sandnes Ulf lose and that Ranheim don’t win at Start. I don’t think Ranheim will get a result at Sørlandet, and there’s every chance that a fully motivated Bryne side can get a win against Ulf. But. There’s always a but: Mjøndalen themselves don’t have the easiest fixture, even though Stabæk are finished for this season. Going to Nadderud and winning will be a significant task regardless of table position. These are my picks for this weekend in the top two tiers of Norwegian football
Last Weeks Results
SATURDAY’S GAMES
Nothing On It
In Need of A Win
SUNDAY’S GAMES
The Big One
Another Strong, Hard Home Team
Almost Nothing On It
Mobilisation!
Panic Station
Not The Priority
OBOS-LIGAEN
Hatred
Start A Dream
Optimal Preparations vs. Suboptimal Preparations
Conclusion
