Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet.

Another highly exciting weekend in the Premier League awaits! I’ve taken a look ahead to what we can expect from the weekend’s fixtures.

SATURDAY’S GAMES

Lunchtime Kick-Off

Nottingham Forest-Liverpool

While most of us are finishing our lunch (or breakfast) – or night snack, depending on how much of a party animal or night owl you are – on Saturday morning, the game between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool approaches kick-off. Forest went to Brighton in midweek and got a very valuable point in their suitcase, although they were battered for 90 minutes and probably quite lucky to come away from The Amex with anything. Regardless of that, it’s encouraging signs for Steve Cooper’s team. Liverpool was rewarded with three points against Man City at the weekend, and followed that up by gaining another three points when West Ham came to town. It’s difficult to see anything other than a good away win for Liverpool here, but 1.23 is a short price for any team away from home in the Prem. I want to see more of Liverpool until deciding on where they stand.

Up To Merseyside

Everton-Crystal Palace

Everton and Liverpool never play home games at the same time (there’s a fun fact for you), which is also the case for other big rivals located in short distance from each other. So while Liverpool fans are either feeling sorry for themselves on the way home from Nottingham, or are ecstatic after a 5-0 win, Everton take on Crystal Palace in a tight, good, Premier League affair. 2.50 on the home team (who have one day less of recovery and rest than Crystal Palace, is all you need to know about how tight and close the bookies consider this game to be. Sometimes in life you just have to credit the bookmakers for their pricing of a game; I don’t see any value whatsoever on either the “1×2” (home win, draw or away win) outcome, or on the goals line. It just looks perfectly priced. 

Bouncebackability

Manchester City-Brighton & Hove Albion

I use the term “bouncebackability” quite a lot, which just means the capacity to bounce back from disappointing performances and results. Man City are currently looking to put things right after they had their rare bump in the road against Liverpool, and have statistically proved to do so most of the time they get a poor result. Brighton might actually be the perfect opposition, who aren’t exactly in the best run of form themselves. They will undoubtedly try to play their own game at The Etihad, which can suit a more direct City team well. I watched the game in Manchester between these two last season, where City won comfortably after a little period of Brighton pressure. It’s not easy to see anything other than a solid home win, especially when they are so keen to put things right after the disappointing experience at Anfield. City win to nil at 1.93 is my pick.

The Big One

Chelsea-Manchester United

Manchester United flexed their muscles and pulled up their best performance of the season when they beat Spurs on Wednesday. I watched Chelsea at Brentford, where The Blues struggled for large periods of the game and were put under a significant amount of pressure from The Bees. So if we blindly follow the stats and current form trend, everything points to an away win at The Bridge. But, football is never so simple. The hosts are fairly big favourites for the visit of The Red Devils, at evens (2.00) to win the game. It seems difficult to argue with that, but there’s such a thing as confidence and momentum in football. With that taken into consideration, I think there is an argument to be made for Man United in this game. Ten Hag and his team have a lot of strengths on the counter attacks, which can suit them well against a high Chelsea defensive line.

SUNDAY’S GAMES

A Midlands Derby

Wolverhampton Wanderers-Leicester City

As I write these words (Wednesday evening), Wolverhampton Wanderers look set to announce Michael Beale as their manager, Steven Gerrard’s former assistant and the current manager of QPR. Wolves have been up and down so far this season; the team are struggling to produce many chances and seem to have lost a bit of their defensive solidity that made them so hard to beat last season. Leicester have the joy of welcoming James Maddison back to action following a one game suspension after his dive (suspension triggering yellow card) against Crystal Palace. It’s a difficult one to call, as Wolves surely will have their tails up when a new manager is about to be announced. I think there’s more value on the away side than on Leicester here, if I’m honest.

Power Football

Leeds United-Fulham

Leeds United and their manager Jesse Marsch have been proponents of power football for a good while now. You know what you get when Leeds cross the white line, and that is hard and direct football. Fulham, under Marco Silva, have (especially this season) been impressive, by being aggressive and positive on the ball. Their defensive wall has cracked up a bit lately, which you would expect for a newly promoted team who like to play expansive and attacking football. I like the odds on the over line in this one, where it’s currently priced at 1.74 to go over 2.5 goals. I would also consider laying* Leeds here, as I think this is the sort of the game that can suit a Fulham side with lots of attacking spice. As long as Mitrovic is available, a bet on Fulham can be worth considering.

The Gunning Train

Southampton-Arsenal

Arsenal had the luxury of having a whole week “off” (at least most of the first team), while all the other teams (except Man City) played during midweek. It should have been a welcome little break for The Gunners’ most important players, who have been firing on all cylinders up until this point. They were, however, put under some heavy pressure last weekend at Leeds, and were probably lucky to come away with all three points. Southampton, meanwhile, must have been very encouraged to finally get a good, solid Premier League win under their belts. Going to Bournemouth and winning should be expected for a team with aspirations of finishing in the top 15, but doing so away from home in the PL is never easy. They will be buzzing off that win and now host Arsenal full of confidence. I do think that The Gunners’ key players’ little break will be the difference and make them win this tie.

Pressure’s Mounting

Aston Villa-Brentford

Steven Gerrard is probably not sleeping like a baby at the moment. His Aston Villa side performed well against Chelsea on Sunday, but have not been doing so consistently since he took over from Dean Smith almost a year ago. It’s getting warm underneath his feet, so to say. What next for Stevie and Villa? They will look to beat a team like Brentford on their own turf, although I thought Thomas Frank’s boys were outstanding against Chelsea (a lot of teams seem to be playing well against Chelsea nowadays), and would have been deserved winners if they could have found a goal to break the deadlock. They didn’t, and were possibly lucky at the end when Chelsea almost found the winning goal. Villa are currently priced at 2.06 to beat Brentford at home, which I immediately disagree with. The pressure from the home crowd – who have had high expectations of their club throughout history – can work is Villa’s disfavour. Brentford have an extra day’s rest and will not head to Villa Park with anything but the confidence to put on yet another good show. I find value on laying* Villa here.

More Newcastle Value?

Tottenham Hotspur-Newcastle United

I had written the title of the preview of this game before Spurs got spanked by Manchester United. Now I’m definitely not so sure that they will experience another disappointing game. ‘Beware the wounded animal’ is a saying with some substance to it: I’ve already spoken about the bouncebackability, which is a bit of the same thinking. Good teams tend to bounce back after a poor performance and result, and a team under the leadership of Antonio Conte definitely fits that bill. Spurs were priced at about 1.95 before they lost 2-0 at Old Trafford, but are currently given an exact 50 percent chance of beating Newcastle United. The Magpies have been very solid throughout this season: they limited Everton to just one attempt on target in their 1-0 win against The Toffees in midweek. Eddie Howe’s team sit nicely in 6th place, having only lost one game and conceded just 9 goals in their 11 games so far. Their only defeat came at Anfield, a game in which they were in good control and deserved to get something from. What kind of game will we get on Sunday in London? Spurs don’t like having all of the ball – neither do Newcastle – so maybe this can be an open game with attack after attack? I’m really not sure. Spurs beat Newcastle 5-1 at home in April. That doesn’t mean much probably, but it’s enough for me to just look away and not pick anything in this fixture.

MONDAY’S GAME

Just A Textbook Home Win

West Ham United-Bournemouth

Sometimes you just have a strong intuition/gut feeling about a certain outcome in a game of football, or in life in general. The thing to do then is to check the odds market and see if you can identify any value. I can in this instance. Yes, West Ham have had a very difficult run of games with a tightly contested fixture list, and yes they had a draining experience at Anfield in midweek, although I thought they conducted themselves well and should have had something from the game. But yes, I think there’s value to be found on West Ham when Bournemouth go to the capital. The Hammers look to have picked up their form again, and I expect them to pick up more points in the coming weeks and months, while Bournemouth probably have overperformed slightly. I’m picking West Ham in this game.

Conclusion

I’ve found a few picks for this weekend in the Premier League. Many interesting games and I think I’ve found a couple of interesting bets as well.

• West Ham-Bournemouth. West Ham -1 (asian handicap) @ 1.93
• Aston Villa-Brentford. Brentford +0.5 (asian handicap) @ 1.83
• Man City-Brighton. Man City win to nil @ 1.93.

*To ‘lay’ a bet simply means you are backing something not to happen. For instance, if you lay Barcelona in the Outright Champions League 2019 Winner market, you are betting that they will not win the tournament.